Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby xandamere » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:29 am

Turn 42:

Well, Jeremy starts to launch a massive attack against my river line in the west….and gets a 1-rounder and thus doesn’t really accomplish anything. This is, much like our last match, clearly where the main conflict of the match is going to take place. So, I’ll start railing (even more) stuff out this way. I feel like this match is playing out in very similar ways to our last one, and I’m well equipped to stop this move - even more so than I was the last time around, I think. I’m honestly surprised Jeremy hasn’t tried something bolder, like, I don’t know, pushing west for Los Angeles, or going north with all his strength towards Baltimore. Something different. But, at the end of the day, this is probably what gives him the best chance to win. I just need to stop it.

I actually spot some Japanese sailing around south of Costa Rica, heading for the Panama Canal. As soon as I realized what Jeremy was going for, I stationed some long-range bombers down in Mexico hoping to spot them, but this is the first time I’ve actually caught any. Time to blow them up. Happily, the whole stack dies - not a ton, but I think it was 3 divisions and an HQ.

Jeremy’s 1-round turn means his attack is delayed, but it also means he didn’t end up with units in spots that are vulnerable to counterattacks. So, in the West, I mostly just hang out and wait for the hammer to fall next turn. Elsewhere, the normal local counterattacks. I’m starting to wonder about two fronts…

In Mexico, I’m just not seeing more Axis reinforcements down here. I thought Jeremy would be sending the Japanese this way, but they seem to have gone to the west. Maybe I can hang on down here with my relative pittance of forces. There are a lot of Italians marching towards the horrible terrain blocking the way to the Pacific coast, and I’d rather not let them reach that and cut off the rest of the country, but otherwise I think I can hold down here barring significant Axis reinforcement as long as Jeremy doesn't attempt an airborne attack to cut off the country. After disappearing for a couple of turns, the paratroopers are back on the front lines, though, so at least for the time being I think I'm safe.

Finally, at Boston, I’m wondering if the time has come to get my units out of fortified status and go on a general offensive here. The Axis units on this front seem awfully battered and I haven’t seen any new units head this way in quite some time. Jeremy keeps attacking me, so by and large he isn’t dug in on this front. I’m wary of sending a bunch of reinforcements here with the Axis western offensive starting up, but I’m also wondering if I could kick the Axis out of the Boston beachhead entirely….after all, he doesn’t have much to land here to reinforce at this point.

The Allies have the river line defended in a decent amount of depth and I'm feeling pretty good about my chances of bogging the Axis down indefinitely:

West turn 42.jpg
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:31 am

Turn 43
This one is violent. Here finally the big offensive really begins to kick off. 88 Battles this turn – that is the most yet I am pretty certain. Mat’s turn is not as bad as I had expected it to be. In theory he was able to take advantage of my 1 rounder but somewhat like the chance I had to take advantage of his it just did not seem all that dramatic. I don’t lose the Panzer Division up around Boston though it is cut from supply. I lose Albany and maybe that might be an issue if Matt can go back to taking it every round as it is a 120% supply point right near the front line [due to some bug]. Matt blows the bridge that supplies this part of the front as well to help reduce supplies. Still when my turn roles around I retake Albany and pretty much stick the front in roughly where it has been for some time. A bloody stalemate continues on this front – one I feel like I will eventually lose simply because I can’t take the losses and here is where that crisis comes to a head first.

Richmond area see’s Matt drive me back a bit and then I am back to pushing forward here and it is a very hard push as I am trying to trap a few of his Divisions on a short Super River that comes out of the Atlantic here. It is still a long way forward but the small advances I have been making here might eventually get me in the neighbourhood of a couple of Industrial Cities and, unfortunately, those are just dominating my thinking at this point. My back to the wall at this point and I need to take them to keep the game in play. It is supposed to be destroy the Allied Army and the rest of this will sort itself out but I don’t see how to do that from this position so here we are.

There is a really surprising event in the far south of the Map where Matt apparently finds my Japanese roughly off the coast of Panama in some random Pacific Ocean hex and from way up in southern Mexico and Belize 60 hexs – 3000 Kilometres his bombers find me and destroy 3 Japanese Divisions at sea. I even had a naval escort but it is not enough to stop air strikes. Fortunately, I had been limited by sea transport when I loaded this stack and only had 3 Infantry Divisions to lose. I’ll pick a new random hex next time my Japanese arrive in this area and hope it is not observed, have each stack covered by 2 naval units and keep some fighters down here on these critical turns to help protect them. Should be enough – no Allied fighter can fly this far.

Mexico itself see’s Matt withdrawing from one part of the front furthest north and pushing a bit further south. My turn is similar as I drive some forces forward while extending the line a bit. I am somewhat surprised about how bad the supplies are down here. I really need to pull a bunch of units off the line to resupply. There is a functional line – or it will be back up and functional in a turn or two and a bunch of fresh Italians have arrived so that is not actually completely unreasonable. I have some good Axis Minors down here that I think I could get some work out of if I can get them off glowing red.

The big offensive in the West is something of a mixed bag but pretty reasonable. A number of areas I am trying to cross I just can’t shift the Allies as it is difficult to get the artillery to follow up but I am over in one of the southern routes and I just plow my way through Saint Louis taking the City much to my surprise. Still have to cross the River here but seems possible. Minneapolis also coming under heavy attack and we will see how that works out. All that said I did show my hand last turn and Matt found ways to strip troops from other fronts for this one so it may turn very sour when Matt starts up the counter attack.

Finally, I am desperately pushing the rail line forward as quick as possible but have noticed that my forward edge of the Italians are in some places to far forward – beyond the supply line forward. The Italian line is about controlling the airfields that threaten the western supply line so not easy to pull back. What I really need is to throw a rail line west about 10 hexs toward Albuquerque. That would put supplies at the forward edge at around 3. Not much but they are getting supplies so the units would also get replacements – at the moment some of my forward edge Italians are about to evaporate from being over extended. It means pulling two rail repair away and I am not sure I can afford that right now – I’ll swap Italians around to buy time until I can afford to get the rail repair units I need down here.

Turn 43.png
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Finally the Western offensive kicks off
“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
―John Dryden
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby xandamere » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:28 am

Turn 43:

Jeremy’s big attack in the West actually goes off this turn and he starts pushing his way across the last super river between the Axis and Chicago (and the rest of the Allied heartland). I’m railing troops here, but I decide to take a bit of a gamble (mainly because I feel like I just haven’t taken any this entire match), and I don’t rail everything I can from Boston - instead, I start counterattacking even more vigorously. I feel like Jeremy must be totally out of troops by now, even Japanese, and so I’m going to try to kick the Germans out of New England entirely. I know that’s aggressive and I might well be betting the match here vs. just stripping this front of reserves and reinforcing out West, but I have a feeling that the Axis are very, very thin on this front.

Out West, the super rivers force Jeremy’s troops to stack up in ways that let my counterattacks eliminate a couple of units. Otherwise, I think we’re going to struggle on this river line for a turn or two before the Axis are really able to shove their way across, though I have no illusions of being able to stop them from doing so eventually.

In Mexico things feel like they’re working in my favor overall, though I think there are more Italians heading this way. I am confident that, at least, Jeremy won’t be able to seize the rest of the country without a fair bit of additional reinforcement down here, and I don’t know where he’s going to get it from.

The Allies surge forward on the Boston front, hoping to drive the Huns from this part of America once and for all:

Boston turn 43.jpg
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:40 pm

Turn 44
Argh…what crummy luck! I suffer another 1 rounder. This is really bad, coming so soon after the last 1 rounder and right at the beginning of my attempt to make a major push over the Mississippi. The situation at Boston is especially disturbing as Matt really gave Boston a pounding and really blew the line backwards. Desperately I throw all the units resupplying into the line whatever their state. The problem is with only one attack in the south the line there is not really stabilized. Further north I had been driven into a bit of a stack which I figured I could reshuffle around with a couple of attacks. But here I can’t shift and am in very real danger of Matt cutting off and destroying whole stacks.

Around Richmond my assault had carried me pretty far forward but Matt had counter attacked very heavily and driven me well back. I had hoped to recover but of course that never happened. Not sure what will happen here – presumably with him having 12 combat rounds in 3 turns and me having 6 the way this game works I’ll be at my start lines a whole bunch of turns ago.

Mexico is less bad. I mean Matt is pushing me back because he is able to attack so much more then me but it is not a crisis here I don’t think.

I sort of suspect that the attack over the Mississippi is in a lot of trouble now. We will see how badly he handles my attempts to get over the Mississippi, but he has had a pretty good opportunity to deploy reserves and set up solid counter attacks. I am over in a few places, but I sort of suspect that I have gotten over just enough to get myself in trouble. Guess I will see how bad this really turns out.

St. Louis 68%
“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
―John Dryden
Jeremy Mac Donald
 
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:51 pm

Axis North East Front Turn 44
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“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
―John Dryden
Jeremy Mac Donald
 
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:52 pm

Axis South Front Turn 44
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“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
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Jeremy Mac Donald
 
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:52 pm

Axis West Front Turn 44
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“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:53 pm

Axis Far West Front Turn 44
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“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby Jeremy Mac Donald » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:54 pm

Axis South West Front Turn 44
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“Such subtle covenants shall be made, till peace itself is war in masquerade.”
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Re: Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

Postby xandamere » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:15 pm

Turn 44:

Jeremy gets another 1-rounder, which honestly just seems kind of unfair. As a result, though he pushes forward a bit, he isn’t able to accomplish as much - surely not nearly as much as he hoped. This gives me more time to move forces over to the area of attack, but perhaps more importantly, it leaves the Axis army out of position in some other areas….especially up at the Boston beachhead.

My counterattack at Boston shoves the Axis back and breaks their lines entirely in the north. Something like 8 or 9 divisions are pocketed north of Albany, while a drive extends out of New York as well. Can I actually drive the Axis into the sea here? Well, Jeremy can certainly ship more units here (though he’ll first have to rail them to a port, I imagine, thus eating up time as well as rail resources), but this will certainly give him something serious to think about.

In Mexico I was worried that I was going to get swamped, but while I see a few Italians trickling into the area, there isn’t all that much. I’m not going to win any victories on this front, but I don’t see how Jeremy can get to Mexico City, either. I also manage to pick off a paratrooper division here, and am confused as to why the valuable German paras are being used as line infantry in a backwater theater.

On the critical front, though, I’m not able to do that much. I can shove back a couple of crossings and hit the Axis while they’re on vulnerable river hexes, but there’s no way I can bring to a halt the sheer amount of combat power that Jeremy has on this front. I’m railing my new National Guard Army here, but it won’t arrive until next turn, and it won’t be enough to bring anything to a halt either. I do have a nice defense in depth that should take Jeremy a fair bit of time to chew through, by which time more reinforcements will have shown up.

Of particular note is the Allied armor is looking incredibly weak. My overall loss penalty isn’t super high, and my replacement rate has been high for most of the match, but I have consistently used my armor and artillery to hammer away at the German infantry wherever they can. Well, over time, it turns out that even those sorts of attacks will eventually wear down the Allied armored divisions. I’m down to just over 4,000 Shermans (most of the early war Allied armored divisions have between 150 - 260 or so Shermans). Just over 12,000 have been lost so far over 44 turns, and at my current 67% replacement rate I’m building 170 per turn. My replacement rate has generally been higher, so if you figure I’ve averaged building 200 new Shermans per turn, that’s still just about 9,000 built versus 12,000 lost over the course of the match thus far, plus I have more armored divisions in the field than I did at the start. I’m actually wondering if I might want to disband a few armored divisions so the rest can fill back up - right now I have some full supply armored divisions that are barely 10 strength, which isn’t even close to a match for a full strength Panzer division. Sadly, Jeremy’s advance through Iowa and Denver has taken some of the territory in which the late-war Allied armored corps mobilize, so I feel like I need to stretch my existing armor as far as I can. Something to think of in the next few turns.

Allied forces at Boston surge forward and break the Axis lines:

Boston turn 44.jpg
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