Oh honestly

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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:46 pm

specterx wrote:Established parliamentary system? Iran is at best a heavily-circumscribed semi-democracy...


You say that as if these two systems are mutually exclusive. Eighteenth century Britain most definitely had a parliamentary system; it emphatically was not a democracy.

The point is that characterizing the Iranian state as a 'regime' creates an illusion of fragility; a few cruise missiles and the 'regime' will collapse. At worst, we could invade, and 'the regime' will be as dead as Saddam Hussein's state in Iraq.

I don't think so. I think that bombing them is just going to strengthen them. That's what we saw with the assassination of Soleimani. Leaving aside the man's undoubted talents, his killing helped the Iranian state rather than hurting it.

We need to concede the essential legitimacy of the Iranian state. Only then can we intelligently respond to it. Right now, it's as if we're settling a dispute with the neighbor on the basis that he's a werewolf, and if we can just catch him at the full moon...

...Happily, of course, we needn't respond to Iran at all. It's a state with decidedly limited abilities and ambitions, located literally on the opposite side of the planet from us. There is literally nothing it is likely to do that would seriously interfere with any genuine American interest.

I suggest ignoring it.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:57 pm

Here's a meaningless statement:

'Israeli Intel: Iran Will Have Enough Enriched Uranium for Nuke by Year's End'

The difficulty is that Israel has been predicting Iran is within six months of acquiring the bomb since literally the early nineteen eighties.

You might as well consult the guy yelling in the supermarket parking lot as to whether the end really is nigh.

Anyway, hopefully Iran will acquire a nuke. Then all these evil attempts to bait it into striking back will come to a screeching halt.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby specterx » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:47 pm

Colin Wright wrote:I think that bombing them is just going to strengthen them. That's what we saw with the assassination of Soleimani. Leaving aside the man's undoubted talents, his killing helped the Iranian state rather than hurting it.


I don't necessarily disagree with your broader point, but my impression is that Soleimani's loss will be deeply felt. He seems to have been personally responsible for the progress of Iran's assorted foreign ventures and interventions in a way that will be impossible to replace - you can appoint someone else to the job but Soleimani apparently had truly exceptional personal qualities, and connections with key regional players built up over years. Not only that, but within the regime he seems to have acted as a vital bridge between the military, the Guards and the clerical establishment.

That's another way in which the airliner shootdown is almost too much of a coincidence - coming right on the heels of Soleimani's killing, the effect will be to create major tensions between the IRGC (which controlled the missile site; recent Iranian reports were oddly specific about this) and the clerical/civilian government, which so far has been taking the blame.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:42 am

Not very surprising.

Ghislaine Maxwell is reportedly hiding in Israel.

https://israelpalestinenews.org/epstein ... ly+Updates

The next stage in our descent will be when such figures don't need to hide.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:27 am

We seem to be making sure they'll stop hating us for our freedom.

'...Google's decision to delete Press TV UK's YouTube account comes as technology companies continue to face pressure over monitoring their content and complying with US sanctions.

Last week, a Facebook spokesperson said that it was actively removing posts on Instagram that expressed support for US-designated terrorist organisations and their leaders...'



So we can hear anyone's opinions...so long as they don't express support for those our government disapproves of.

In some respect, this must be different than the situation in Turkey, for example. I'm trying to think of what that respect might be.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:54 am

'... Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar and - somewhat obliquely - Pete Buttigieg came down in support of extending scaled-down US deployments in Iraq. Biden warned that without US troops in the region, the Islamic State might regain strength.
"They'll come back if we do not deal with them and we do not have someone who can bring together the rest of the world to go with us, with small numbers of special forces we have, to organise the effort to take them down," he said...'


Kinda sucks that we killed Soleimani, huh?
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:10 pm

In Iran, 'several newscasters quit their jobs, apologizing for having broadcast lies.'

Well, it'd never happen here, that much is for sure.
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby specterx » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:28 pm

The plot thickens...

From 2012: https://www.jpost.com/Defense/WikiLeaks ... nian-codes

The key question: was all the stuff with Soleimani cooked up as cover to shoot down the plane (ie a targeted assassination), or was it done simply to stir the pot?
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:46 am

specterx wrote:The plot thickens...

From 2012: https://www.jpost.com/Defense/WikiLeaks ... nian-codes

The key question: was all the stuff with Soleimani cooked up as cover to shoot down the plane (ie a targeted assassination), or was it done simply to stir the pot?


And did the Iranians actually screw up or have they calculated it would be worse if they admitted Israel has hacked their air defense system and Russia helped them do it?
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Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:49 am

...and whose drones did Israel give Russia the codes for?

Were the codes for drones Israel herself sold to Georgia?

...or codes for drones we sold to Georgia?

Neither one exactly makes Israel everybody's friend.

It really is a little surreal what shits those people are.
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