Oh honestly

Description of your first forum.

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Ben Turner » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:13 am

Colin Wright wrote:That's kind of a circular argument. Actually, for a brutal, medieval Islamic dictatorship, Iran seems to wind up with an awful lot of protests, and displays a great deal of concern with whatever the popular consensus is.

Compare, say, to Saudi Arabia, or various others of our allies.


Oh sure a protest in Iran means a lot less than it does in Saudi. Conversely, it means a lot more than it does in the UK. In the UK, a protest just means it was a nice day to go out and maybe have a beer in the evening. In Iran it does mean people are annoyed enough about something to risk at least a night in the cells for it.
User avatar
Ben Turner
 
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 8:59 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Ben Turner » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:14 am

Colin Wright wrote:'Soldiers at the Al Asad base in western Iraq who lived through the barrage of Iranian missiles described fearful moments as they came under fire.'

When you serve Israel in the front line, you gotta expect danger.


In a more general sense- are we supposed to be mortified that our soldiers came under fire? Isn't this what soldiers are for?
User avatar
Ben Turner
 
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 8:59 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Ben Turner » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:54 pm

Really the whole airliner thing seems to be a massive blessing in disguise. It looms so large in the coverage of the crisis that Soleimani and Iran's actual response get buried, and seems to be holding enough of Iran's attention that a further response isn't likely to be immediately forthcoming- and the US is deprived of an excuse for further action in turn.
User avatar
Ben Turner
 
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 8:59 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby specterx » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:27 pm

Ben Turner wrote:Really the whole airliner thing seems to be a massive blessing in disguise. It looms so large in the coverage of the crisis that Soleimani and Iran's actual response get buried, and seems to be holding enough of Iran's attention that a further response isn't likely to be immediately forthcoming- and the US is deprived of an excuse for further action in turn.


Well, Iran's response more or less confirms my thinking - they went to extreme lengths to avoid killing any US soldiers and were quick to announce that the retaliation had been "concluded". And Trump was just as quick to declare victory. The shootdown pretty much reversed the whole flow of events for the second time in two weeks, and now the regime is once again in the spotlight.

However corrupt our motives, the extreme sanctions and pressure combined with a (now plausible) threat of war, might just put the regime under so much pressure that something breaks.
Automation makes immigration obsolete.
specterx
 
Posts: 1126
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 11:30 pm
Location: Imperial City

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:51 pm

Ben Turner wrote:Really the whole airliner thing seems to be a massive blessing in disguise. It looms so large in the coverage of the crisis that Soleimani and Iran's actual response get buried, and seems to be holding enough of Iran's attention that a further response isn't likely to be immediately forthcoming- and the US is deprived of an excuse for further action in turn.


It does have that effect. It's frustrating for those of us lusting for the final showdown -- which is another way of saying the same thing.
Ilhan Omar speaks for me
User avatar
Colin Wright
 
Posts: 10916
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:36 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:59 pm

specterx wrote:However corrupt our motives, the extreme sanctions and pressure combined with a (now plausible) threat of war, might just put the regime under so much pressure that something breaks.


? I think these persistent descriptions of Iran's government as 'the regime' are just a spurious rhetorical device.

Yes, regimes 'break' -- but the Islamic Republic of Iran isn't a 'regime.' It's an established parliamentary system with theocratic features that has been in place for forty years now. Vast swathes of the population are invested in it, and it has a demonstrated ability to shift its political shading in response to popular sentiment. It holds legitimate elections, smoothly accepts the results, and adjusts its behavior in response.

One might as well predict 'the regime' breaking in Italy in response to the immigration crisis.

I can't guarantee it won't happen -- but don't hold your breath. The implication of course, is that our various boycotts and subversions are ultimately futile. Since 'the regime' isn't going to go away, they're nothing more than pointless exercises in sadism.
Last edited by Colin Wright on Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ilhan Omar speaks for me
User avatar
Colin Wright
 
Posts: 10916
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:36 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:06 pm

specterx wrote:Well, Iran's response more or less confirms my thinking - they went to extreme lengths to avoid killing any US soldiers and were quick to announce that the retaliation had been "concluded". And Trump was just as quick to declare victory. The shootdown pretty much reversed the whole flow of events for the second time in two weeks...


I wouldn't count on it being over. Iran has a demonstrated ability to persist in fulfilling its objectives -- whether those are hunting down and killing former officials of the Shah's regime or overthrowing Saddam Hussein.

They spent twenty years exacting revenge for Hussein's invasion of Iran.

Moreover, this fits Shi'a theology like a glove. The sect is all about mourning the murder of Ali and making amends for that. Okay, who's Ali in this play? That killing took place over thirteen hundred years ago; maybe Iran will remember Soleimani for a decade and take measures.

Now, you could be right that they'll forget about it and move along. But suppose that's not their intention? Well, what would they do? They don't particularly want to give Israel's servants a pretext to rain fire and brimstone on their cities -- they're not suicidal.

So step one would be to get 'the Jews' (as we're fondly known) out of Iraq and Syria so as to hobble their ability to savage Iran. They're working on that.

Step two would be to pretend to satisfaction. They have to be able to make a claim of plausible deniability when some shooter steps out of a restaurant foyer somewhere ten years from now and shoots Pompeo dead -- or when a 'dirty bomb' goes off inside the Beltway.

Who knows what they're going to regard as satisfaction? They probably don't.

We declared war on Iran. Right now, our carriers are steaming back from Hawaii. We're wondering what Iran is going to do.

We'll see.
Ilhan Omar speaks for me
User avatar
Colin Wright
 
Posts: 10916
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:36 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:38 pm

Ben Turner wrote:
Colin Wright wrote:'Soldiers at the Al Asad base in western Iraq who lived through the barrage of Iranian missiles described fearful moments as they came under fire.'

When you serve Israel in the front line, you gotta expect danger.


In a more general sense- are we supposed to be mortified that our soldiers came under fire? Isn't this what soldiers are for?


Well of course we're mortified.

Our victims aren't supposed to shoot back. We're doing all this for their benefit, after all.
Ilhan Omar speaks for me
User avatar
Colin Wright
 
Posts: 10916
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:36 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby Colin Wright » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:46 pm

It's also worth pointing out that Iran rather daringly did all they could short of provoking the awesome power of this fully armed and operational battle station.

They warned us of the missile strike an hour in advance so as to (hopefully) cause no actual American casualties. Then, as it turned out, they didn't cause any casualties.

Even so, Trump seems to have initially planned to go on the air and announce massive retaliation. But as word came in that no Americans had been killed, it became obvious that it all wouldn't quite fly.

So he settled for declaring victory. But Iran pushed their luck about as far as they could. They were one targeting error away from experiencing the full wrath of the Empire.

Now, presumably, they're working on the next step. I think it's improbable they've decided this sufficed. Rather, it was merely all they could do for the nonce.

It was the Doolittle Raid. The firebombing of Tokyo will come later.

Or, we can count on our total military and political supremacy continuing indefinitely.
Ilhan Omar speaks for me
User avatar
Colin Wright
 
Posts: 10916
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:36 pm

Re: Oh honestly

Postby specterx » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:17 pm

Colin Wright wrote:? I think these persistent descriptions of Iran's government as 'the regime' are just a spurious rhetorical device.

Yes, regimes 'break' -- but the Islamic Republic of Iran isn't a 'regime.' It's an established parliamentary system with theocratic features that has been in place for forty years now. Vast swathes of the population are invested in it, and it has a demonstrated ability to shift its political shading in response to popular sentiment. It holds legitimate elections, smoothly accepts the results, and adjusts its behavior in response.

One might as well predict 'the regime' breaking in Italy in response to the immigration crisis.

I can't guarantee it won't happen -- but don't hold your breath. The implication of course, is that our various boycotts and subversions are ultimately futile. Since 'the regime' isn't going to go away, they're nothing more than pointless exercises in sadism.


Established parliamentary system? Iran is at best a heavily-circumscribed semi-democracy, where almost all real power is exercised by a Deep State of clerics and the Revolutionary Guards. When protests started a few weeks back, they cut off the whole country's Internet and sent the Pasdaran to shoot protesters in the streets. That sort of behavior is a clear marker of a dictatorship.
Last edited by specterx on Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Automation makes immigration obsolete.
specterx
 
Posts: 1126
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 11:30 pm
Location: Imperial City

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron