Fall Grau 2.25 Jeremy (Axis) v.s. Matt (Allies) Match 5

[xandamere]

Turn 24:

Holy moly. Jeremy sends me a really devastating turn - he launches an airborne operation to cut off several brigades (looks like 9 in total plus the Marine division) that were still south of the Tennessee river. I’m kind of baffled at how the paras were able to make it through all the Allied fighter cover around Boston, as I’m pretty sure that’s where 3 of the 4 paratrooper divisions came from, and they all appear to have made it (maybe he shipped them south a turn or two ago and I didn’t notice...I’d been trying to keep tabs on them but might have forgotten). But, make it they did, and Jeremy also has more units roaming around the south than I had spotted with my theater recon. I’m pretty sure all of these units are dead, and it has me kicking myself for not railing more of them out of there. There were some that had to walk as they weren’t fortified on rail lines, but since most of the eastern side of the Mississippi is a rail line, most of these units could have railed to safety. I wanted to blow some bridges and I guess that’s why I didn’t do it, but mostly, I just thought they were completely safe...and it turns out they weren’t. Not by a longshot. And now I’ll pay the price for my mistake.

Otherwise things are relatively as expected. Jeremy informs me that he did have another engineer on the Missouri river, so the bridgehead is not cut from supply, but the Axis are in rather desperate circumstances there I should think. Some Italians have shown up at Albequerque, but I have a few fortified Mexican units in the area as I’d spotted the broken rail lines branching towards the city a long time ago.

My first priority is to ensure that the Axis can’t just surge across the Tennessee. I also ship some more units to defend the Missouri line and St. Louis, as this area is all very lightly guarded and it’s a place where I could potentially lose the game. So, a few units trickle away from the southeast front and Boston to shore those areas up. The units south of the Tennessee are all dead, as I just can’t see a way to save them, so the ones that can run away do in order to blow more bridges and make a nuisance of themselves before dying (Jeremy has taken the last supply point down here, so they’re going to die off on their own in short order).

In the West, I think Jeremy either didn’t see or just couldn’t react to the units I railed directly to the west of Omaha, and I’m moving in to try and finish off that bridgehead and nab as much as I can.

While the South is a debacle for the Allies, the West is a debacle for the Axis. The Omaha bridgehead is shrunk significantly this turn, and my troops coming around from the west do, I believe, now cut supply to the pocket. I just hope I can wrap this up in time to get these forces back down to the area southeast of St. Louis, where I think they will soon be needed. Otherwise, the same local counterattacks around Boston that have been going on for ages now. Jeremy catches a bit of a break as most of Bomber Command is still reorganizing, as it was last turn. The Allied air force is big, but they sure do like to take frequent breaks.

The Western front, where I am having dreams of crushing a dozen or more German divisions in a large encirclement:

West turn 24.jpg (387.72 KiB) Viewed 174 times

[xandamere]

And the South, where Jeremy has successfully bagged something like 5 or 6 divisions worth of American infantry and I am trying frantically to prevent him getting over the Tennessee/Ohio:

South turn 24.jpg (560.57 KiB) Viewed 174 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 25
Wow this is a rough turn. Just when I think I might have made enough of a move to possibly reverse things Matt pulls one off that swings things even more toward him. While he did not manage to cut me off last turn it turns out he had enough forces snuck forward on the flank that along with a brutal attack on the north side of the Missouri that seems to just smash my army apart, my double line barely seeming to matter, he sneaks a unit forward to cut me off as well.

By the time it is my turn I am just trying to figure out what I can do to mitigate this situation. I destroy the unit that snuck forward to cut things off and even manage to surround and destroy what I think are some other Allies trying to sneak forward. I do what I can to get my units back over the Missouri as well and set up a defence. The rather depressing thing is that here my forces are just about to become adequate I think to start to solidify the defences here. It seems clear that I started my offensive across the Missouri to early and just needed to bring up adequate forces. Of course I did not want to allow Matt time to solidify but obviously this is way worse. How much worse I won't know until Matt's turn. The possibilities range from bad to really, really, bad. Best case scenario Matt pretty much pushes the units still trapped on the North (east from our positions really) side of the Missouri back over and maybe I lose a Division or three. The real fear however is that he manages to cut these forces off, surround and destroy them. In that case I just lose a lot of units and it gets that much harder to recover from this set back. I mean it is already feeling like I am getting deep into a hole that my Axis just won't be able to dig out of these developments are already a real problem.

I am also sort of stuck on what to do assuming the situation is not too disastrous out here. I mean this is hardly a critical part of the map. Assuming I wrestle the initiative back what do I do with it? Nothing comes to mind immediately. I will have to see how things are developing and then study the map to see if I can find a way.

Matt sent some reinforcements to the southern flank of my attack on Albuquerque, but I am not that concerned here as I see it and am diverting Italians to counter. That said these Irregulars are appearing all along the western flank and they are really good forces for an Allied player whose army is basically intact. They are lousy at defence but are utterly expendable and good at slipping through ZOCs and sneaking. Basically, they are the perfect units to mess with the Axis supply lines. My best counter to them is to find a way to put enough pressure on Matt to get him to use them to defend himself instead of allowing him to maximize their abilities by having them harass me. Of course, this is exactly what I seem to have failed to do this match. All that said I am all over the Mexicans defending Albuquerque this turn. Maybe Matt has some kind of a counter but seems like the city is pretty compromised.

The northern part of the Wilmington Bridgehead remains pretty static. Matt is only attacking in a few areas and I am countering but also only on a couple of hexs. We have both stripped this line down.

The Boston front is more interesting. Matt pressed me back again but what I really noticed was very heavy withdrawals from this area. Matt is sending forces racing to the area behind the Tennessee to cover that part of the front. I am hopeful that between some withdrawals of units from this part of the front and my frontal attack on Hartford I might manage to get some movement on this front again, but I can't really say I am hugely hopeful yet. I don't really see, yet, how I have solved the heavy Allied artillery concentration on this front and I really think that is what Matt is using to defend here. I've noticed this on my side as well. I can attack a strong stack with a pretty beaten up unit and 3 HQs and the stack retreats even if my unit does not advance. The Artillery is just so good at driving the defenders back. On this front I just can't advance fast enough with my HQs to take more hexs then Matt can retake. Partly this is because of the terrain but here the fact that my HQs are not that fast (except the Panzer HQs) really stands out.

Meanwhile in the South it turns out Matt does not try and relieve his cut off forces. He simply starts to set up the defence of the Tennessee. I don't have a German Corp this turn and land the Romanians near New Orleans to start clearing the south from the West while a Finish Corp lands near Savannah to start clearing from the East. Otherwise I am starting to clear up the Allied units left behind and set up across the Tennessee myself. The reality however is that I really don't want to be using good units on this front if at all possible. I want to get my army here back to the northern part of the Wilmington Bridgehead ASAP. Still that is not going to go as fast as I would like. It pretty much amounts to getting enough of the south under control that I can relieve the German Infantry with Finns and Romanians so that they can relieve the Panzers and the Airborne. Meanwhile it is pretty clear that between the two moves being pulled off this turn Matt's is the more impressive as the Loss Rate drops another 8 points getting pretty close to equal.

Loss Rating (Axis/Allies): 101/114

Turn 25.png (1.97 MiB) Viewed 166 times

The Axis fight desperately just to manage to retreat back over the Missouri

[xandamere]

Turn 25:

Jeremy may have taken a lesson from our last match with me as the Allies as he descends on Albuquerque with what looks like a very large force of Italians. I saw them coming up and had moved some Mexican guerrilla units to each flank in hopes it was a small group and I could surround them, but my southern guerilla units are hit by what looks like 4 Italian divisions, so I don’t think there’s much hope here. Alas. The good news is up at the Missouri, Jeremy looks to be in full retreat. Now it’s just a matter of how much can I kill before he gets away. No big surprises elsewhere. The Tennessee river line isn’t attacked, and everything else is the slow grind that it’s been for a while.

My main area to try and reinforce is the river line from St. Louis down to the Tennessee and then across to the Appalachians. There was a lot of Axis armor in that area last turn, and I’m worried Jeremy is going to try and make a quick run north with it. I think I can hold this area, but I don’t want to get complacent.

As I move around a bit I notice that Jeremy has executed a pretty incredible retreat from the Missouri crossing. I think I helped at one point last turn when I hit a stack of units and knocked them back onto the other side of the river and out of contact with me...should have just left them and made Jeremy march them out slowly. I still consider this a significant Allied tactical victory, but my dreams of bagging 10+ German divisions are clearly not happening. I get a couple of Panzer divisions, and a lot of units that get away are very, very weak and will thus drain the Axis replacement pool, but no wholesale slaughter.

Otherwise, more of the same with local counterattacks in the southeast and especially at Boston. I’ve had most of the Allied fighters up near Boston for a while now and I’ve noticed the Luftwaffe units in the area that I occasionally manage to spot are pretty battered. I’ve hit the airfields a couple of times, and I start to step it up this turn. This time, I’m rewarded by 4 units of ME-109s evaporating in the face of airfield attacks. Luftwaffe fighter units reconstitute in this version of Fall Grau, so they aren’t dead forever, but their gradual decline in strength tells me that it isn’t just a random evaporation - the Luftwaffe is really running short on fighters or else those units would be getting filled up with replacements each turn. Time to try and turn up the pressure some more on the German air force.

Axis troops are thrown back across the Missouri but the majority do manage to get away:

West turn 25.jpg (272.65 KiB) Viewed 164 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 26
Well that could certainly have been worse. For the most part Matt just shoves me back across the Missouri. To be sure I lost a couple of Divisions here but not a whole army or anything. He jumps the Missouri himself in at a couple of points but this I pretty much anticipated and while things are still a bit touch and go I am clearing out some of these forces and pushing them back. The only real scary element on the turn at the moment is that I failed the proficiency check after 50% of the round was used and I have a serious stack of HQs. I don't think Matt can work his way around them and destroy them but damn I hate having that much value in a single hex. Too much risk. It's not like the forces here are really fighting trim.

Meanwhile I think I pretty much clear out the south of most mobile units. I have a cordon making sure nothing slips the net and causes problems but the first of the Panzers are heading back north. Still just to relieve all the forces now holding the line down here means sending the reinforcing German Infantry to this sector into the South to relieve more valuable units. The front line really expanded for both of us here.

Albuquerque looks to be very successful. It appears Matt is mostly pulling away on this front having decided that there are just too many Italians. I did see Irregulars start trying to infiltrate into the West as suspected. I'll end up having to screen and hunt these guys down now which is a pain and likely uses more of my resources then it ever does of Matt's but I don't see any real help for it.

Wilmington Bridgehead does the usual minor back and forth though I realize that I am very slowly advancing on this front as the rail line is just a bit back now.

Boston sort of the same story with a bit of an advance in the southern part of this Bridgehead. Matt doing very heavy air attacks on this part of the front and some of my air evaporates. I am not too concerned given that Axis air now reconstitutes. I either get them back or the fighting has been heavy. I lost a bit more on his turn but this turn was a pretty good one in the air.

Still going backward on the Loss Rate however. Just can't seem to shift that back in my direction.

Hartford – 87%

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The West after the withdrawal back over the Missouri

[Edit: What stands out for me here is that the army is quite strong even discounting the extremely battered units now pulling back for a refit - If I had just waited four turns I presumably could have crossed and just kept going.]

[xandamere]

Turn 26:

Not a lot happening on the Axis side. No real significant attacks, but it looks like Jeremy is successfully extricating most of the force that crossed the Missouri, which is disappointing. Still, a turn without meaningful Axis advances is one that I will gladly take. The Italians have Albuquerque surrounded and I don’t have troops to spare for a counterattack here right now, so I’m just pulling back my Mexican force that’s in the area and letting Jeremy have the city.

Around Omaha I keep attacking to the south - there are a couple more National Guard divisions of the Army that mobilized this turn that are due to muster in the area and I would like to free their hexes before I start redeploying this force. Local counterattacks at Boston continue as normal (I think Albany must have traded hands something like 5 or 6 times by now), and I use my armor to poke at some of the infantry brigades that Jeremy is bringing up to the river lines in the south. May as well inflict cheap casualties while I can.

Jeremy redeploys a decent portion of the Luftwaffe to Boston to counter my air attacks, which in turn strips some of the fighter cover from his supply line out west. With no industrial city providing supplies, I’m able to bomb the rail lines heading up from Houston, which should result in all of his units in the Omaha region going into overextended status. I now have enough Mustangs to provide some fighter cover in this area, though Jeremy has smartly taken a lot of the desert airfields to make it harder. Since most of those units are very low supply after being cut off across the Missouri, I’m quite happy with this, as it should result in desertion as well as just delaying the recuperation of this force. My Mexican guerrilla units are also poking in from the western desert to see if I can get at the Axis rail line and cut it. I love those guerrilla units (one of my heights of our last match with me as the Allies was managing to sneak one all the way to Houston).

The only downside for me right now is that after having my replacement rate high for most of the match, it’s finally going to start falling. Memphis, Atlanta, Birmingham, Mobile, and New Orleans are all cut off and should fall by turn 30 (maybe Mobile hangs on a turn or two past that as there aren’t any Axis troops next to it just yet). Combined with the loss of Albuquerque, that should put my replacement rate around 69% or so on turn 30. That’s not terrible, especially since it’s been closer to 100% for most of the match (I’m still at the point of having produced more rifle AT- squads over the course of the match than I’ve lost, but barely), but it’s no longer quite as robust as it’s been for most of the time. Jeremy will still be in a situation of needing to force his way through some tough defensive lines in nasty terrain in order to achieve victory, and outside of the airborne operation in the south that netted 5 or so divisions, I’ve managed to avoid significant tactical defeats. If I can keep doing that, I feel like I’m in good shape.

The Axis army escaping back across the Missouri prevented this being a huge victory, but still feels good to really throw them back:

West turn 26.jpg (461.94 KiB) Viewed 160 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 27
Matt always seems to find a way to make my life miserable. Just as I had begun to think I had started to get things somewhat under control he finds a way to blow the Western Bridges. Admittedly I had stripped out the German fighters from the defence of the West. There just were no close Allied controlled airfields except for ones cut from supply in the south plus I had the Japanese defending and thought they might be pretty good. They have really long range fighters so all of them could cover all the bridges. Turns out that this was not really the case. Matt flew in three Late Mustangs to Tampico – which is still pretty far from the Galveston region, and managed to take down the two key bridges cutting supply to the entire West. I don't have any engineers nearby to repair the bridges either. I had kept units here for some time but the crossing of the Missouri and the Mississippi really required quite a lot of Engineers. My response is to find 5 German fighters to go and defend the supply line, send some Engineers back to go and be around for repairs and send a bunch of rail repair down here to make sure that the line is fixed next turn. I might also build another branch but that takes a while and it really just means 3 bridges have to come down to cut the supply. It also does nothing about the supply line being cut further north though that can also be worked around.

Meanwhile the situation in the West is significantly impacted. Matt has pretty much just started to push south. His attempts to cross the Missouri itself are clearly stopped on my turn as I manage to drive him completely back and kill an Armoured Division in the process but he has general offensive going on here just driving south via Omaha and points West of Omaha. I think by this point I actually outnumber him but with no supplies this far north 60% of my army is glowing red and badly batted from being pushed back over the Missouri and cut from supply. I am pulling them back and hoping I can get the supplies back up here to rebuild the army. That leaves me defending with 40% of the forces here none of which get any supplies on their turn. The one upside is that Matt has been trying to infiltrate with Irregulars and Cavalry and such and I keep finding and killing these guys.

Albuquerque also continues to go well and should fall soon. Though here again – until I get a supply line way out here I can't really do much more. The Italians that are winning this battle are now pretty much a spent force.

The South is going pretty well. Some units are finally making their way back to Charlotte to resupply and return to an attempt to push north into the North East. Matt has a fair bit of forces behind the Tennessee. He is pushing me back off bridges and such. At some point he will realize that I actually don't intend to attack across the Tennessee (unless he really strips the front down). I don't have a good supply line here and it does not really go anywhere – well it does outflank the Appalachians – but otherwise.

Matt was pretty aggressive on his turn both on the Wilmington line and especially at Boston where he really goes to push me back. This actually displays some of the benefits to artillery as I push him right back in part because my artillery does not have to advance forward so it starts clearing hexs right from phase 1 of the turn. Albany looks the same as always but I think I am slowly clearing out the southern defences.

Central America is a big deal for me this turn but not actually in a good way. I have gotten to the Panama Canal and there I find the 1st American Infantry Division. I am beyond the reach of my supply and my units are slowly losing strength. That could turn into a real rush of strength lost if I can't take the hex and probably in the first attack. Matt's Division might not resupply all that fast but it does resupply and I don't. I think I have a work around but it will take a number of turns and it has to work or a surprising number of troops will be nearly stranded in South America. I send the Argentinian and Chilean HQ plus a fresh Colombian Calvary Division to the coastline near Panama. No great landing places but I am close enough that I should be able to get to the front in 3 or 4 turns. Next turn I will hedge my bets more with some fresh German Infantry plus maybe a German HQ and also the Venezuelan HQ. It is a lot but I am really keen to own the Panama Canal and send the Japanese this way. Matt has not suffered much in the way of losses this match I doubt I can successfully land in the West. Plus, once taken they can sea lift back to the action and we are getting up toward the point where things to do with sea lift will run out.

Meanwhile the spread in the Loss Rate keeps falling. I suspect it shows as equal on Matt's turn and just a few points in my favour on my turn. Still maybe once I take all these cities in the South plus Albuquerque and can resupply my forces in the West it will reverse again. I keep hoping I can find a way to do that. Also, at some point in the not to distant future the Allied Submarine event should end. I will get better supply and replacements once that happens.

[Edit: Here I am wrong on the replacements – they don’t come back]

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Supply shortages keep the Axis fighting a rearguard defencive Action on the West side of the Missouri

[xandamere]

Turn 27:

Another fairly quiet Axis turn. Albuquerque is attacked but hangs on for 1 more turn (and I’m worried I did not withdraw the Mexicans far enough from the city, as once it falls Jeremy gets a supply point and there are a LOT of Italians in the area…). Albany trades hands once again, and an armored division that got brave and crossed the Missouri is killed. Otherwise, not much is happening. There is no attempt by the Axis to quickly rush my defenses along the Tennessee/Ohio/Missouri line - I don’t think one would be all that successful, but it seems like there are now a lot of Axis units that are basically stuck in that part of the map and not able to do much if they can’t cross those rivers.

More of the same with lots of little local counterattacks. I’m continuing to pressure the Axis south of Omaha, mainly because I have a lot of units in the area and I know his supply situation there is terrible with the bridges down. Also, with my replacement rate high and our loss penalties roughly equal, I feel like it makes sense for me to seek favorable attrition wherever I can. Not much of note, really, aside from Albany changing hands for the umpteenth time.

I’ve felt that I’ve had the upper hand for a while now, but at almost ⅓ of the way through the match, I feel like I can say that barring a catastrophic mistake on my part, I’m pretty confident that I’ve won. The loss of the South was inevitable, and though it’s unfortunate I lost a few divisions along with it, that doesn’t cripple my replacement rate - it just keeps it from getting out of control. I’m having a hard time seeing where Jeremy goes from here...he has a lot of units in the south that are thus unavailable for other fronts for quite some time. He’ll get Albuquerque, he can get Denver if he wants it and St. Louis. At some point he’ll probably get Albany and hold it. But I don’t see how he gets into the real industrial heartland and even comes close to approaching a victory by VPs.

Allied defenses at Boston, where I've had units that have been fortified for almost the entire game just hanging out:

Boston turn 27.jpg (300.04 KiB) Viewed 137 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 28
Not a great turn for me. In Central America my attempts to land on the coastline are thwarted. The units won't advance. Maybe because it is a mountain hex? I send the units to a hex nearer Panama that just has hills though I then have to advance through a Jungle hex. My real fear here however is that Matt might somehow notice. I sent two German Infantry Divisions and a German HQ to this hex as well. The danger is that Matt will see them and get a bomber down here with enough time to blow the whole stack up. I decide to take a small Bulgarian Division and occupy Jamaica as that is the closest airfield outside of Panama itself. That said I suspect that Cuba is still in range of the longest ranged bombers.

The West continues to be a problem for me. Matt continues to advance but it is not that aggressive. In fact what really sticks out is that he rails an HQ and 3 National Guard Divisions from here to Boston. It is always bad news for the Axis player when the Allied player starts shifting reserves from front to front.

My situation here is not that bad. More raiders are caught and killed but these irregulars could be replaced forever. The rail line is a problem however. Turns out that Rail Repair units can't repair bridges that have been bombed. Strangely they can repair ones that ground forces blow up but not one’s air forces blow up. Well last turn I moved some Engineers onto rail lines but none could get down to this part of the line so the rail line will remain broken. This turn I manage to get an Italian Engineer and the South American Engineer down here and have to hope they will be good enough to fix these breaks. I also get a couple more Engineers on the rail line just in case I need yet more Engineers to fix the rail line. While continued reinforcements have the front pretty much under control I don't have a real chance to become a threat out here until I can resupply.

The burnt out Italians do take Albuquerque this turn and the two turns of resupply in the area should help to get the units functional at least. Not planning on carrying out more offensives out here until a supply line comes up but being fighting capable makes it that much easier if Matt pressures me out here.

I also bump into Matt trying to sneakily take some of the airfields near the Mexican border. I'll likely have to get supply lines out to the West as soon as I can as Matt looks like he will start fighting for Western airfields in order to prosecute a bridge bombing campaign.

The South is just in clean up mode with me trying to free up German Infantry with Finns and Romanians and free up Panzers with German Infantry.

The northern part of the line here, The Wilmington Bridgehead, see's me losing a bit of ground and then getting most of it back. That said there are a couple of notable events on this front. Matt has a Fortified Regiment and I attack that with two good Infantry Divisions and quite a lot of air but no artillery...and get slaughtered. In another fight up at Boston I attack two full American Infantry Divisions near full supply, one of which is Fortified with a single mostly burnt out Division but 3 Hqs and I blow Matt out of the hex. So clearly Artillery is absolutely the arbitrator of victory here. With it you win and without it you loose. This has me examining the road network. In the plains of the West one hex is almost as good as another but here I can only advance along roads. I also need to free up Engineers because river hexs pretty much halt the offensive. Matt has realized the same thing I have and I have noticed that he sometimes has a Division evaporate attacking and I think he is generally attacking with a weakened Division and 4 or 5 artillery against 4 German Divisions. Sometimes his Division dies but the artillery blow those four or whatever German Divisions out of the hex. We really see this at Boston where Matt is very aggressive (and does have one of these self evaporations) pushing me back. I recover much of the lost ground but a failed proficiency check after half the turn is used up means I don't really recover all of it. Also, I am just not that clear how I can really advance. Reinforcements to this are just don't seem that important when it is about the artillery. Speaking of the artillery since it seems to be the most important unit in the game I have started to pay more attention to the Axis Minors artillery units. Those are, I think, valuable – I’ll need to mass them for use in attacks – not with the Axis Minors themselves of course. Bulgarians Guard rail lines but Bulgarian Artillery supports German attacks.

This reminds me that I lost one this turn in an unusual way. The Colombian HQ has been heading south into Central America and was very worn out due to attrition. This turn when I went looking for it the unit had been destroyed. Since nothing killed it it is apparently possible for a unit to evaporate from attrition.

Meanwhile the attrition rate to about equal on my turn. Very much running out of time to change this situation.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Axis North East Front Turn 28